My wife and I spent the weekend down in Mexico City. Though we’ve spent a bit of time in South America (many visits to her mother’s native Colombia, as well as Chile and Argentina), we hadn’t gone to Mexico yet together. And though I did some missions work in a small village in southern Sinaloa for a few consecutive summers, I had never been to what is by far the largest city in North America. According to my mother (in a rare moment of “TMI”), I was conceived in a Mexico City hotel room sometime in August, 1966. So for those who hold that life begins at conception, Hugo Schwyzer embarked upon this journey of life south of the border.
In any event, we had a wonderful time. We stayed in a small, spare, painfully hip boutique hotel in the Polanco district, but spent as much time as possible touring about. We both adored Coyoacan and the Kahlo/Rivera museums, as well as wandering through neighborhoods like San Angel and the stunning Chapultepec park. And of course, we were in town for Dia de los Muertos. My Spanish is getting better, but I still rely too heavily on my wife to do the translating. I’ve got the “Rosetta Stone” Spanish DVDs sitting at home, waiting for an as-of-yet non-existent free hour.
Folks, there will be only election-related posts through Wednesday. “Regular” blogging to resume by the end of the week. My endorsements are here.
Four years ago, I posted this the day before George W. Bush was re-elected: God, Voting, and Election Eve. I re-read it this morning, and winced when I read these lines:
I’m also increasingly optimistic about the chances of a Kerry victory. My own electoral college prediction (why not, it’s free) is that Kerry wins 284-254. Bush will concede on Friday of this week, I imagine. The Democrats will have a net gain of one Senate seat, or so I predict.
I was a lousy, and very disappointed, prognosticator. And it is once again election eve, and one very clear instinct within me says “For heaven’s sakes, Hugo, don’t make any more predictions. You jinxed it last time.” As the New York Times reported a couple of days ago, liberals across the country are tying themselves into knots of anxiety; from Berkeley to Braintree, Ann Arbor to Austin, we lefties are united as much in our longing for an Obama victory as we are in our not entirely unreasonable fear that “something” will happen (as it did in Florida in 2000, or Ohio in 2004), to dash all of our hopes.
I’ve worked hard in my life to overcome my supersititiousness and magical thinking. What socks I wear, what inanimate objects I clutch, what phrases I mindlessly recite will have no bearing on the outcome of sporting events or elections. What matters is how I vote, and the degree to which I am able to provide time, money, or inspiration to the campaigns in which I believe. And predicting doom, while it may serve to provide some grim satisfaction when and if the nightmare comes true, is no way to get through life.
So here’s my sensibly optimistic prediction for tomorrow’s election.
Record turnout.
Obama wins 50.5% of the popular vote, McCain wins 47.1%. (Only 2.4% goes third party).
Obama wins all the states Kerry won, plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He loses Florida, narrowly. McCain holds on in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina, but Obama vastly improves on Kerry’s numbers.
Democrats pick up seven senate seats, hold Landrieu’s seat in Louisiana (barely), and fall short of a sixty vote majority. The Democrats gain 19 house seats.
In California, Proposition 2 passes 54-46.
Proposition 4 fails 49-51.
Proposition 8 fails 49-51.
In all three cases, the difference between the coastal counties and the more conservative inland ones is vast.
I could be wrong, of course. But I’m not going to play the game of not naming what I want. I will not let superstition trump hope, even if that means leaving myself vulnerable to crushing disappointment. And let me be clear: if Proposition 2 fails, or Proposition 8 wins, or — above all — if Obama is defeated, I will be crushingly disappointed. But I have been disappointed before.
I also stand behind something else I wrote in that 2004 election eve post. An updated version below:
Tomorrow’s election is important for all of us. It is important for our nation, and for the world. But while I do believe that Christians are called into the political arena (though my neo-Anabaptism leaves me ambivalent about that), I don’t think that the world of secular affairs is our most important battleground. Whoever wins tomorrow (if, deo volente, it ends tomorrow), we shall still have poor to care for. We shall still have hungry to feed. We shall still have lonely to comfort. I will still have teenagers to hug and laugh with. The work of the church is going to continue under a President Kerry Obama, it will continue under a McCain Administration. Ultimately, the president is still Caesar, and though we are subject to Caesar’s laws (and in this society, may even help him make those laws), our focus must always be on service to another, grander, greater kingdom.
Both liberal and conservative Christians are too enamored of the power of the secular state to transform the hearts and minds and lives of its citizens and the citizens of the world. Yes, the moral character and vision of the ruler matters. Yes, the policies of the state matter — and good Christians can differ in good conscience as to what those policies ought to be. But the God I worship had little time for great leaders when he walked the earth. Jesus was political, yes — but His politics were far more radical than anything any modern politician could possibly espouse.
if Proposition 2 fails, or Proposition 8 wins, or — above all — if Obama is defeated, I will be crushingly disappointed.
Same here. I will be waiting at the voting booth a little before they open. It will be hard for me to concentrate on my activites all day long. If none of the props go my way, I hope and pray that at least Obama wins.
Referring to the same quote as Mermade: me too. I’ve been getting more and more anxious every day.
I’ve been disappointed before, too, of course, but the stakes only get higher…
On the brightish side, I’m pretty sure the Republicans would have to steal it pretty overtly for McCain to win, and I’m pretty sure there would be rioting in this streets this time, if there were foul play. Real rioting.
We have had enough.
I don’t pay much attention to polls and wish the press would supress or stop their focus and continual coverage on them. I feel it influences outcome in a negative way. I’m not too thrilled about endorsements either. I would just like the focus to be on the facts with as little bias as possible and let the voters decide on issues themselves, with the appropriate information. I’m a registered Democrat, however I tend to vote independently and now I’ve become very resentful of all the calls. Yesterday alone I received 6 calls from the Democrats and only 1 from the Republicans. I feel bombarded with their phamplets. It’s irritating me and I’m feeling very annoyed with the party that I’m registered with.
Karen, I hear you. But how do we find out the facts? What are our tools? One time-honored way is by asking ourselves, who is it that I trust to deliver me information that I need that I cannot always get myself? That’s where endorsements come in. And polls are important indicators of public opinion, but one is always free to disregard them.
But please, whatever you do, don’t make a decision about whom you are supporting based upon how constant the pressure is from one side or the other. Ask yourself what three issues matter most to you — and then look at the McCain-Palin or Obama-Biden tickets and ask yourself which of these two pairings is more likely to bring about the results you would like to see. Consider issues of character and competence and charisma as well as ideology, and then vote accordingly. It will all be over, God willing, in about 32 more hours.
Daisy Bond: I pray that whatever the outcome, you will have no rioting. However tainted the election, I see no advantage that civil strife would bring you. Take comfort in this: whoever you elect, your government will have to address the many critical issues facing your nation, and I hope and believe that an aroused public will compel them to do so in a positive manner.
Karen: Whenever you get annoyed by the flurry of information provided by your government when it wants to consult you, think of the millions of people who yearn for elections, and the generations who sacrificed so you could choose your government.
Along with all that prayer, will you please wear your lucky socks?
Just sayin’. ‘Cause I will.
Hugo,
I do go to sources that I trust and do my own research. I generally watch Bill Moyer’s Journal and turn to PBS for coverage. I also watch Charlie Rose. I also read the books by the author’s I see on Bill Moyer’s show. I know his leanings, but he also offers balanced perspective and he isn’t extreme. I also read some newspapers, however when I pick up their bias it tends to put me off. Character and competence matter more than charisma as well as voting record. I still dislike polling as I feel it influences outcome in a negative way. I received more information from the Obama campaign with a pamphlet from some church group I’ve never heard of and I do not like that.
John,
The information sent is not about the government wanting to consult me. They want my vote and alliance to their party. I’m well aware of the generations of people who sacrificed for voting privledges–those people happen to be people and generations in my own family. My point is more that it tends to be overkill.
I pray that whatever the outcome, you will have no rioting. However tainted the election, I see no advantage that civil strife would bring you.
Really? Because an outright stealing of the election — which is what I was referring to, and which is very, very different from McCain winning — would mean that the US is a fascist dictatorship.
I am not in favor of violence, but I hope to God that we would not tolerate the total destruction of our republic. I have living relatives who escaped European fascism — allowing it to happen here it completely unacceptable.
Take comfort in this: whoever you elect, your government will have to address the many critical issues facing your nation, and I hope and believe that an aroused public will compel them to do so in a positive manner.
If it’s a tyranny, no, it absolutely will not. Looking at the trend of the last eight years, that strikes me as a real possibility. That’s probably my inherited Holocaust trauma talking, but, history being what it is, I take that received paranoia very, very seriously.
In the event that Proposition 8 passes, I will likely be devastated; I will know in my bones that a majority of the voters of the state have told me that my relationship is not equal to theirs, and that I am a second class citizen in their eyes.
I am really not emotionally prepared for that.
Aphrael, I am conscious of that — and of all the GLBTQ young people I work with who will be devastated as well. We must win this, and we will win this, and in the unthinkable event that we don’t, I will do everything I can to surround them with two things: love and historical perspective.
I think I’m actually more worried about your election than the last one of ours, and I got to vote in ours. Of course, that might be why, because our government dances to your tune and I get no say in what that tune will be.
I might have difficulty making myself go to bed tonight. There’s no point staying up, the polls don’t even close until four am, but I won’t want to stop watching.